Suchergebnisse

Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change and Economy -- 1.2 The Classification of IAM -- 1.3 IAM Modeling Principle -- 1.4 Global Carbon Cycle Model -- 1.5 Shortcomings -- References -- 2 MRICES -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Model Description -- 2.2.1 Economic System -- 2.2.2 Emissions Mitigation -- 2.2.3 GDP Spillovers -- 2.3 Parameter Estimation -- 2.4 Assessment of Emissions Mitigation Strategies -- 2.4.1 Egalitarian Allocation of Emissions Quotas -- 2.4.2 UNDP Strategy -- 2.4.3 Copenhagen Accord -- 2.4.4 A Strategy to Achieve the 2 °C Target -- 2.5 Conclusions and Discussion -- Appendix A -- References -- 3 The Impact of Sea Level Rise -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Model and Data -- 3.3 A Group Reduce Emissions Scheme Setting -- 3.4 Result -- 3.4.1 The Temperature -- 3.4.2 The Sea Level -- 3.4.3 The Economic Loss of Sea Level Rise -- 3.4.3.1 The Land Loss Without Protection -- 3.4.3.2 The Land Loss Under Protection -- 3.4.3.3 The Economic Loss -- 3.5 The Flood Area in China -- 3.6 Discussion -- References -- 4 EMRICES -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Analysis Framework -- 4.2.1 The Model -- 4.2.2 The Situation of Global Carbon Mitigation -- 4.2.3 Global Mitigation Principles -- 4.3 The Game Design and Simulation -- 4.3.1 Welfare -- 4.3.2 The Mitigation Strategy -- 4.3.3 The Solution of the Nash Equilibrium -- 4.3.4 The Mitigation Scheme -- 4.4 Sensitivity Analysis -- 4.4.1 The Nash Equilibrium -- 4.4.2 The Pareto Principle -- 4.5 The Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 5 The Analysis for Synergistic Effect of Policy of Environmental Tax with Dynamic CGE in China -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Model and Data -- 5.2.1 CGE Dynamic Mechanism -- 5.2.2 Data -- 5.3 Results Analysis -- 5.3.1 Baseline Scenario -- 5.3.2 Sulfur Tax Scenario -- 5.3.3 Carbon Tax Scenario

The paper systematically reviews and compares 88 scenarios of energy demand in commercial and residential buildings that include the additional energy use or savings induced by thermal adaptation in heating and cooling needs at global level. The resulting studies are grouped in a novel classification that makes it possible to systematically understand why the energy projections of integrated assessment models vary depending on how changes in climatic conditions and the associated adaptation needs are modeled. Projections underestimate the energy demand of the building sector when it is driven only by income, population, unchanging climatic conditions and their associated adaptation needs. Across the studies reviewed, already by 2050 climate change will induce a median 30% (90%) percentage variation of a building's energy demand for cooling and a median -8% (-24%) percentage variation for heating, leading to a 2% (13%) increase when cooling and heating are combined, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 1.9 (8.5). The results underscore that models lacking extensive margin adjustments, and models that focus on residential demand, highly underestimate the additional cooling needs of the building sector. Topics that deserve further investigation regard improving the characterization of adopting energy-using goods that provide thermal adaptation services and better articulating the heterogeneous needs across sectors.

Uncertainty over the consequences of unprecedented global warming is central to environmental insecurity. Global warming threatens to exacerbate all other ecological stresses and menaces human populations and economies. Despite scientific efforts, great uncertainties still pervade crucial aspects of the climate change process and its consequences. Yet integrated assessment models widely used to analyze climate policy options, such as the Nordhaus DICE model, establish that model outputs are highly sensitive to plausible alternative parameter values. This paper further explores uncertainties by substituting probability distributions for pre-determined values of key parameters in the DICE model. It then draws randomly from these probability distributions to implement a Monte Carlo analysis of policy outcomes, generating hundreds of policy simulations. An important finding is that the sacrifice in world consumption entailed in keeping the rise in global temperatures below two degrees centigrade would likely be negligible if emitting countries cooperate in adopting efficient mitigation policies. In other words, the cost of insurance against dangerous climate change is close to zero. Thus, the result of this analysis suggests that science and economics agree on keeping climate change below a level threatening serious damage.

The United Nations has defined the food-energy-water nexus as a key issue in the green economy process towards sustainable development. The integrated assessment model is used here to frame and study the heterogeneity of the food-energy-water nexus and to manage the food-energy-water nexus in Germany in a social learning and decision-making process. For the integrated assessment of the German food-energy-water nexus sector, a four-phase approach based on the de Ridder method is used to analyse the food-energy-water nexus against the background of the completely revised German sustainability strategy of 2017. In the first step, the integrated assessment problem analysis, the interconnections of the food-energy-water nexus between the natural resources and the socio-economic system are formulated. The new political values and options needed for the management of the food-energy-water nexus sector are revealed in the second research step and it is stressed that justice is the defining ethical norm of the revised German sustainability strategy of 2017, which is the sustainability framework for the German food-energy-water nexus. Thus, inter- and intragenerational justice is also a central issue of the food-energy-water nexus and is integrated with the social discount rate in the food-energy-water measuring concept (Fisher nexus quantity index) presented in the third step. In the final research step of the integrated assessment approach, it is found that the new food-energy-water nexus policy process also needs a 'culture of reflected numbers', as Voßkuhle calls it, to ensure a social discourse as a permanent learning process for both the German government and society.

The United Nations has defined the food-energy-water nexus as a key issue in the green economy process towards sustainable development. The integrated assessment model is used here to frame and study the heterogeneity of the food-energy-water nexus and to manage the food-energy-water nexus in Germany in a social learning and decision-making process. For the integrated assessment of the German food-energy-water nexus sector, a four-phase approach based on the de Ridder method is used to analyse the food-energy-water nexus against the background of the completely revised German sustainability strategy of 2017. In the first step, the integrated assessment problem analysis, the interconnections of the food-energy-water nexus between the natural resources and the socio-economic system are formulated. The new political values and options needed for the management of the food-energy-water nexus sector are revealed in the second research step and it is stressed that justice is the defining ethical norm of the revised German sustainability strategy of 2017, which is the sustainability framework for the German food-energy-water nexus. Thus, inter- and intragenerational justice is also a central issue of the food-energy-water nexus and is integrated with the social discount rate in the food-energy-water measuring concept (Fisher nexus quantity index) presented in the third step. In the final research step of the integrated assessment approach, it is found that the new food-energy-water nexus policy process also needs a 'culture of reflected numbers', as Voßkuhle calls it, to ensure a social discourse as a permanent learning process for both the German government and society.

Tools purposed towards supporting the transition to more sustainable urban futures typically focus on specific phenomena at the local level. Whilst such approaches remain valuable, there is a need to complement this micro approach with broader integrated methods which deal with the interaction between different urban components as well as their relation to processes and policies enacted at higher scales. Through the adaptation of the World3 global model of Meadows et al. (The limits to growth, Universe Books, New York, 1972; Limits to growth: the 30-year update. Earthscan, London 2005), integrating both an urban system layer, and a national data layer inputting new data, we develop a proof-of-concept multi-scale integrated assessment model. This model is used to explore the relationship between the sustainability of the urban system relative to higher-scale contexts. By emphasising feedback, cascading effects, and unintended consequences, such a modelling framework allows for deeper consideration of coupling mechanisms between subsystems both within the urban system and across broader scales. Following the description of our model, we take Meadows et al. (2005)'s 'Scenario 3' as a starting point to generate several scenarios exploring potential intervention taken at the level of the individual urban system to tackle food security and localised pollution. Our results demonstrate that the evolution of the urban system is sensitively dependent on wider global events, and that while concerted intervention may mitigate some effects, the future of an individual system is largely at the mercy of the evolution of the global system. We argue that the results of this exercise suggest an important role for multi-scale models for informing the wider context of policy measures taken across different hierarchical scales. In an extended discussion section, we outline barriers and potential routes for building our work beyond a proof-of-concept relating to data, boundaries, politicisation, and building confidence in model outputs.